Press Release

WASHINGTON, D.C. — Today, Somos Votantes released new polling data showing Latino voters in key states and districts are rejecting President Trump and Republicans ahead of the 2026 midterms, driven by mounting economic pain, widespread disapproval of Republican’s tariff and healthcare policies, and intense alarm over the costs of Trump's war with Iran. This marks the fifth consecutive installment of Somos Votantes' quarterly tracking series — and the first to focus exclusively on the key states where control of Congress and governorships will be decided: Arizona, Georgia, Michigan, Nevada, New Mexico, North Carolina, Texas, and Wisconsin.

The findings reveal a Latino electorate that is not only deeply pessimistic about the direction of the country under Republican leadership —  but increasingly disapproving of Republicans. Yet the data also makes clear that Democrats have not secured a victory in November: real vulnerabilities on government waste, crime and fiscal credibility mean Latino voters are demanding their support to be earned.

Key findings of the poll:

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• Partisan dynamics are currently showing Latino voters in key states lean heavily Democratic and are breaking decisively toward Democratic candidates. Democrats hold a +15 partisan advantage in surveyed states (50% Democrat vs. 35% Republican) and a +6 advantage in surveyed districts (49% D vs. 43% R). On the generic ballot, Democrats lead by +20 in states (55% / 35%) and +12 in districts (53% / 41%).
• Trump is a significant electoral liability, with deeply negative ratings on every measure — and his worst numbers on the economy. His personal favorability is deeply negative (net -24 in states; net -18 in districts), his job approval is worse (net -26 states; net -21 districts), and his handling of the economy is his single worst rating (net -30 states; net -24 districts).
• Republicans in Congress are deeply underwater, Democrats hold an advantage but face uneven standing of their own. Republican congressional favorability is deeply negative in both states (net -23) and districts (net -20). Democrats in Congress receive mixed reviews — slightly negative in states (net -3: 45% favorable / 48% unfavorable) and narrowly positive in districts (net +2) — outperforming Republicans but not earning voter confidence entirely.
• The cost of living, across all measures, is a dominant and intensifying concern. Roughly two-thirds of Latino likely voters say the cost of living has gone up "a lot" over the past year (64% states / 63% districts), with more than eight-in-ten reporting costs have risen overall in program states and three-quarters saying the same in program districts. The sharpest concerns center on grocery prices (62% extremely concerned in states / 57% in districts) and rising healthcare and prescription drug costs (59% states / 58% districts).
• Latino voters overwhelmingly blame politicians more than corporations for price-gouging — arguing they are not doing enough to hold corporations accountable by a 3-to-1 margin (73% states / 74% districts). When the parties are compared directly, a strong majority (2-to-1 margin) blame Republican economic policies — including tariffs, overseas military spending, and cuts to health and food programs — for rising costs (64% states / 63% districts), compared to just over a third who blame Democratic economic policies (36% states / 37% districts).
• Trump's Iran war has emerged as a top Republican vulnerability, driving the highest levels of Latino voter concern in the poll. The top five most alarming statements tested all involve Republican actions tied to Trump — led by concerns that Trump's war with Iran is pushing inflation higher (65% very concerning in states / 62% in districts), that it has driven gas prices up (64% states / 63% districts), and that it is costing American taxpayers in military spending (63% states / 63% districts). Trump tariffs and Medicaid cuts also rank among the top concerns.
• Democrats face real and significant vulnerabilities. While Latino voters broadly trust Democrats more on healthcare and jobs, Democrats trail on crime and safety (36% trust Democrats vs. 38% Republicans in states), and a perceived failure to root out waste, fraud, and abuse in government spending ranks as a top concern — directly undercutting one of the qualities voters most want to see in candidates. Roughly half of Latino voters also express concern that Democrats prioritize issues disconnected from families’ economic reality.
• Candidates who promise to cut waste in government spending while protecting core programs and creating good jobs hold a decisive advantage. Latino voters are overwhelmingly more likely to support candidates who cut waste while safeguarding Social Security, Medicare, and Medicaid (88% more likely in states / 91% in districts) and who create good-paying jobs (88% states / 92% districts).
• Democrats hold advantages on healthcare, jobs, and tariffs — but the margin is competitive. Latino voters trust Democrats more on healthcare (47% vs. 26% in states; 52% vs. 32% in districts) and jobs and the economy (44% vs. 33% in states; 45% vs. 38% in districts). However, roughly one-third of voters still trust Republicans more on economic issues, and up to one-fifth trust neither party.

"We aren't just looking at how Latino voters are experiencing the economy — we're listening to the very people who power it and learning more about what is shaping their political outlook as we head into the 2026 elections," said Melissa Morales, Founder and President of Somos Votantes. "That's why we launched this quarterly tracking series: to ensure their voices are heard as they seek real solutions to their most pressing concerns. Our data clearly shows that the cost of living isn't just an issue — it’s the verdict. From groceries to gas to healthcare, the economic pressures Latino families are having to navigate every day are showing up clearly in how they view current policy — and for the fifth consecutive quarter, while Republicans and Trump are bearing the brunt of that scrutiny, Democrats are under the same lens."

"What is sticking about these findings is that the economic anxiety and sentiment we noticed increasing throughout our 2025 research persist, even when narrowing our research to the key states and districts," said Rosa Mendoza, Vice President at Global Strategy Group. “Latino voters are connecting policy decisions made by this Administration to their continuing economic hardships, with the blame landing harder on Republicans than Democrats. Despite their opposition to Republican policies, their vote has not consolidated for Democrats – demonstrating the opportunity for persuasion that remains. Latino voters are clear about what they want from their leaders: relief on costs, protection of core programs, and accountability. Who addresses these concerns first will have an advantage come November.”

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As Latinos continue to emerge as the decisive voting bloc in the country's most competitive states and districts, this data makes clear that the 2026 midterms will be fought — and potentially won or lost — on the economic concerns at the center of Latino voters' daily lives. 

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You can access the poll memo here.

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‍About Somos Votantes

Somos Votantes is a Latino-led, Latino-focused organization that runs some of the largest independent Latino civic and voter engagement programs in the country. We envision a nation where hardworking Latinos have the opportunities and tools to fully participate in our democracy. Somos Votantes seeks to empower hardworking Latinos in shaping the future of our democracy, primarily through non-partisan civic engagement programs, by increasing our participation in elections and advocating for progressive policies.Visit https://www.somosvotantes.com/ for more information on this program and other projects, and follow the organization on Instagram, Facebook, and X.