Press Release

WASHINGTON, D.C. — Today, Somos Votantes released a new state-by-state from polling data showing Latino voters are driving Democratic advantages across key states — including Nevada, Arizona, Michigan, Wisconsin, Texas, North Carolina, New Mexico and Georgia — as economic anxiety, rising costs, and concerns tied to the Iran war continue to shape the political landscape ahead of the 2026 midterms.

The findings underscore a consistent pattern across states: while Latino likely voters are increasingly rejecting Donald Trump and Republican leadership, Democrats have not yet fully consolidated support. Instead, they remain persuadable — demanding tangible solutions to rising costs, economic instability, and government accountability.
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‍“Our state-by-state data of Latino voters makes one thing very clear: nothing is guaranteed.” said Melissa Morales, Founder and President of Somos Votantes. “Although our polling shows that Republicans and Trump are facing a strong backlash due to economic anxiety fueled by tariffs and the cost of the war in Iran, Democrats don’t have a guaranteed victory either. The reality is that both sides have a lot of work to do; and while Republicans face a massive trust deficit, Democrats must still prove they can address government waste and safety without disconnecting from the economic reality of Latino families. In this cycle, the Latino vote is not a given – it must be earned with real solutions.”

Key State Findings:
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ARIZONA:

Economic concerns tied to the Iran war are widespread, with 80% concerned about inflation, 79% about gas prices, and 75% about taxpayer costs.

Democrats hold a commanding 51% to 34% advantage among Latino voters in Arizona, with 15% identifying as independents.

At the same time, Donald Trump remains underwater across key measures in Arizona:

• Personal favorability: 33% favorable / 67% unfavorable (net -34)
• Job approval: 34% approve / 66% disapprove (net -32)
• Economic approval: 32% approve / 68% disapprove (net -36) — his weakest rating in the state

In a hypothetical matchup for the Arizona governor’s race, Katie Hobbs leads 63% to 28% (+35) against Andy Biggs among Latino likely voters, with 9% undecided.
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In Arizona, Democrats hold advantages across a key House districts among Latino likely voters, however they still face challenges:

• In a hypothetical matchup in AZ-01, Amish Shah leads 51% to 42% over Jay Feely, with 8% undecided
• In a hypothetical matchup in AZ-06, JoAnna Mendoza trails 38% to 49% against Juan Ciscomani, with 12% undecided

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NEVADA:

‍Economic concerns tied to the Iran war are especially pronounced among Latino voters in Nevada, with 92% expressing concern about rising inflation, 83% about increasing gas prices, and 84% about costs to taxpayers.

Latino voters in Nevada are breaking toward Democrats, who hold a 52% to 35% advantage in party identification, with 13% identifying as independents — though that advantage is not fully consolidated. Democrats in Congress hold a narrow positive favorability (48% favorable / 44% unfavorable, net +4), outperforming Republicans who remain deeply underwater (32% favorable / 64% unfavorable, net -32).
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At the same time, Trump remains deeply underwater across key measures in Nevada:

• Personal favorability: 37% favorable / 60% unfavorable (net -23)
• Job approval: 33% approve / 67% disapprove (net -34)
• Economic approval: 31% approve / 69% disapprove (net -38) – his weakest rating in the state

In key races, Democrats hold strong advantages:

• Aaron Ford leads 55%–34% (+21) in the governor’s race against Joe Lombardo
• NV-03: Susie Lee leads 68%–28% (+40) against Marty O’Donnell

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‍WISCONSIN:

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Economic concerns tied to the Iran war remain high among Latino voters, with 75% concerned about inflation, 73% about gas prices, and 74% about taxpayer costs.

Wisconsin presents the most competitive landscape among the states surveyed, with Democrats holding a narrower 47% to 39% advantage among Latino voters, and 13% identifying as independents.

Both parties face challenges: Democrats in Congress are underwater (40% favorable / 52% unfavorable, net -12), while Republicans are significantly worse off (32% favorable / 63% unfavorable, net -31).

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Trump's numbers in Wisconsin are among the worst in the survey across all measures:

• Personal favorability: 30% favorable / 68% unfavorable (net -38)
• Job approval: 30% approve / 68% disapprove (net -38)
• Economic approval: 29% approve / 71% disapprove (net -42) – his weakest economic rating of any key state we surveyed

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In the governor’s race, Mandela Barnes leads Tom Tiffany 51%–35% (+16), though 15% of voters remain undecided.

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‍MICHIGAN:

Economic concerns tied to the Iran war are somewhat lower compared to other states but still substantial, with 72% concerned about inflation, 72% about gas prices, and 67% about taxpayer costs.

In Michigan, Democrats hold a modest 46% to 38% advantage among Latino voters, with 16% identifying as independents. However, both parties face significant favorability challenges. Democrats in Congress are notably underwater (32% favorable / 57% unfavorable, net -25), while Republicans are also negative (34% favorable / 54% unfavorable, net -20), making the gap between the two parties narrower in Michigan than elsewhere.

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Trump's numbers are underwater but less severe than in most other key states:

• Personal favorability: 35% favorable / 61% unfavorable (net -26) – his weakest rating in the state
• Job approval: 42% approve / 58% disapprove (net -16)
• Economic approval: 39% approve / 59% disapprove (net -20) 

In key races, Democrats maintain advantages:

• Jocelyn Benson leads 48% - 28% (+20) against John James in the governor’s race (12% undecided) and 12% supporting the independent Mike Duggan. 
• Mallory McMorrow leads Mike Rogers 50%–39% (+11) in a hypothetical Senate matchup

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TEXAS:
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Economic concerns tied to the Iran war are especially pronounced, with 75% of Latino voters concerned about inflation, 81% about rising gas prices, and 76% about costs to taxpayers.

Latino voters in Texas are breaking decisively toward Democrats, who hold a 51% to 38% advantage in party identification, with 11% identifying as independents. Democrats in Congress are in strong positive territory (57% favorable / 38% unfavorable, net +19), while Republicans remain underwater (40% favorable / 50% unfavorable, net -10).

Trump continues to face significant challenges across all measures, particularly on the economy:

• Personal favorability: 41% favorable / 57% unfavorable (net -16)
• Job approval: 41% approve / 56% disapprove (net -15)
• Economic approval: 37% approve / 60% disapprove (net -23) — his weakest rating in the state

Democrats lead in major statewide matchups, with Gina Hinojosa leading Greg Abbott by 19 points (58%–39%) and – in a hypothetical Texas Senate race – James Talarico leading John Cornyn by 24 points (57%–33%).
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Down-ballot, House races remain competitive:

• TX-15: Bobby Pulido leads 51%–49% over Monica de La Cruz
• TX-28: Henry Cuellar leads 40%–39% over Tano Tijerina (with 21% undecided)
• TX-35: Democrats trail 39%–54% over Carlos De La Cruz (with 7% undecided)

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GEORGIA:

Economic concerns tied to the Iran war are widespread: 77% of Latino voters are concerned about inflation, 70% about rising gas prices, and 70% about costs to taxpayers.

Latino voters in Georgia favor Democrats by a 53% to 33% margin, with 14% identifying as independents — reflecting a clear but not fully consolidated Democratic advantage.

At the same time, Donald Trump remains underwater across key measures in Georgia:

• Personal favorability: 41% favorable / 56% unfavorable (net -15)
• Job approval: 42% approve / 58% disapprove (net -16)
• Economic approval: 32% approve / 67% disapprove (net -35) – his weakest rating in the state

In a hypothetical Senate matchup, Jon Ossoff leads Mike Collins 62%–32% (+30), with 6% undecided – leaving some voters still up for grabs
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NORTH CAROLINA:
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Iran war concerns are notably high among North Carolina Latin voters, with 77% saying rising inflation is concerning, 80% citing increasing gas prices, and 71% expressing concern about the cost to taxpayers.

Among North Carolina Latino likely voters, Democrats hold a 49% – 35% (with 16% identifying as independents) advantage on party identification. Democrats in Congress sit at 43% favorable / 52% unfavorable (net -9), while Republicans in Congress are at 32% favorable / 62% unfavorable (net -30)
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At the same time, Donald Trump remains underwater across key measures in North Carolina:

• Personal favorability: 42% favorable / 56% unfavorable (net -14)
• Job approval: 32% approve / 66% disapprove (net -34)
• Economic approval: 37% approve / 60% disapprove (net -23)

In the North Carolina Senate race, Roy Cooper leads 51% to 40% (+11) against Michael Whatley.
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NEW MEXICO:
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Iran war concerns among New Mexico Latino voters are elevated and broadly in line with overall survey levels, with 80% saying rising inflation is concerning, 83% saying the same of increasing gas prices, and 77% expressing concern about the cost to taxpayers.
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Among New Mexico Latino likely voters, Democrats hold a 54% - 31% (with 16% identifying as independents) advantage on party identification. Democrats in Congress are net negative at 41% favorable / 53% unfavorable (net -12), while Republicans in Congress sit at 35% favorable / 56% unfavorable (net -12), giving Democrats a narrower comparative advantage than in other states. 
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Trump’s numbers in New Mexico closely track the survey-wide averages across all measures:

• Personal favorability: 37% favorable / 61% unfavorable (net -24)
• Job approval: 37% approve / 61% disapprove (net -24)
• Economic approval: 36% approve / 59% disapprove (net -23) 
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In the New Mexico Senate race, Ben Ray Luján leads 50% to 33% (+17) against a Republican challenger. For the governorship, Debra Halland leads 42% to 35% (+7) in a potential matchup against Gregg Hull – the tightest governor’s race margin of any key state surveyed. And for NM-02, Gabriel Vasquez leads 48% to 43% in a potential matchup against Greg Cunningham. 
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As Latino voters continue to play a decisive role in key states, these findings make clear that the path to victory in 2026 will depend on which candidates can most effectively address the economic realities facing Latino voters.
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You can access more data here.
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‍About Somos Votantes

Somos Votantes is a Latino-led, Latino-focused organization that runs some of the largest independent Latino civic and voter engagement programs in the country. We envision a nation where hardworking Latinos have the opportunities and tools to fully participate in our democracy. Somos Votantes seeks to empower hardworking Latinos in shaping the future of our democracy, primarily through non-partisan civic engagement programs, by increasing our participation in elections and advocating for progressive policies.Visit https://www.somosvotantes.com/ for more information on this program and other projects, and follow the organization on Instagram, Facebook, and X.